Lake Wobegon--What'll it be?

Ever since I ran the Fetzer 20k at 6:26 a mile I've been having a hard time deciding what kind of time I should shoot for in the Lake Wobegon Trail Marathon. Runner's World's calculator says I can run a 2:55 and change. McMillan's training calculator says 2:57 and change. Fortunately, I realize I've only run one marathon before and I'm not going to try for either one of those times because that pace seems too quick for a marathon at this point.

I've instead come up with three goals. One I'd be thrilled with, one I can live with, and one that's realistic. As to my race plan, I'll finalize that tomorrow or Wednesday after I run 4 miles @ MP and see how that feels. Some days MP feels easy, some days it feels way too hard. If it feels great tomorrow, I might have a more aggressive plan. If it feels too tough I might try for something more conservative.

My bare minimum goal of being happy--but not really--would be to break 3:10. Unless I get hurt or completely fall apart, 3:10 should come pretty easily. I've done 18 miles @ 7:04 per mile without of ton of effort so if I can't hold onto 7:15 for a marathon I'd be shocked. Running 3:10 gets me into Boston, so if I do that I suppose I'll be happy enough.

My realistic goal is to run 3:03 or better. That's right around 7 minutes a mile and I feel like with the shape I'm in it's pretty doable. 

My aggressive, I'll be thrilled it it happens goal is to break 3 hours. If I ran 2:59:59 that would just be awesome.

After tomorrow's 1 mile easy, 4 @ MP, and 1 easy I should be ready to come up with a more detailed plan.